HVAC systems aren’t cheap. The average homeowner in Canada can spend anywhere between $3,000 to $10,000 on HVAC replacements and upgrades, and will face this expense only once or twice in their lifetime. It’s important to know exactly when to replace an HVAC system so you can avoid last-minute emergencies, save money, and receive a faster, smoother installation. How long do traditional HVAC systems last? Regardless of the kind of HVAC system you have and the condition it is in, if it’s anywhere between 15-20 years old, you might want to consider replacing it. Most HVAC systems don’t last longer than this and face the risk of progressively experiencing issues and breaking down completely past the 15-year mark. Even with good maintenance, you’re on borrowed time. Average lifespan of traditional HVAC systems HVAC System Average Lifespan HVAC Replacement Cost Furnaces (Oil, Gas, Electric) 15-30 years $3,000 - $10,000 Central AC Systems 15-20 years $3,000 - $8,000 Heat Pumps 15-20 years $7,000 - $15,000 Electric Baseboards 15-20 years $1,500 - $6,000 Boilers 10-15 years $3,500 - $10,000 Warning signs it’s time to replace your HVAC system Most HVAC systems don’t go belly up overnight, but fail over time due to gradual wear and tear. There will be many telltale signs indicating that you’ll need to replace your furnace or AC soon. Here’s how to tell if your HVAC system is on its last legs: Frequent breakdowns or need for repairs: If you’re calling the technician more often than you’re enjoying the comfort of your system, it may be time to upgrade. Older units naturally break down more frequently, and even well-maintained systems can start failing due to worn or faulty parts. Unusual or loud noises and strange odors: Some noise is normal when your HVAC system runs, but loud, disruptive sounds or ones you’ve never heard before can signal loose or failing components. Odd smells could point to mold growth, wiring issues, or debris inside the unit. Uneven heating or cooling: If your air conditioner starts blowing hot air or isn’t blowing any air out of the vents at all, there might be an issue with the unit’s compressor or ductwork. Your system is older than 15 years: Keep track of your AC or furnace’s age; anything after 15-20 years is bound to give out soon. You can find the lifespan information for your particular model online and start thinking about a replacement when you’re getting closer to the tail end of that range. Rising energy bills despite similar usage: Any of these problems could cause your HVAC system to become inefficient and consume more power. If you notice your bills going up for no obvious reason, its efficiency has gone down. The best time to replace your HVAC system: Fall Most homeowners don’t think about their HVAC needs (or don’t want to) until extreme weather arrives, often discovering a malfunctioning AC or furnace only when they desperately need it. Naturally, summer and winter end up being the busiest times for installations, as demand peaks during temperature extremes. The best time to buy or replace an HVAC system is, hence, during fall or spring, when the weather is less severe and demand is lower. During these off-peak months, technicians are less busy, which means shorter wait times, lower installation costs, and greater flexibility in scheduling. By planning your HVAC project during these quieter seasons, you can secure quick professional installation on your schedule, take advantage of promotions, and avoid the stress of emergency replacements when extreme temperatures hit. Why fall is the best time of year to replace your HVAC system Moderate weather The best time to get something is before you need it. Fall and spring bring mild, comfortable weather, so going without heating or cooling for a couple of days while your system is being installed isn’t the end of the world. In the fall, you’re using your AC less and may not even need much heating yet, making it the perfect window to upgrade without major disruption. More availability, faster installations Peak seasons like winter and summer keep technicians busy and on the road due to higher demand and frequent service calls, which means you often have to wait longer during these busier periods to purchase and install an HVAC system. Since technicians have better availability in the fall, you can enjoy shorter wait times and flexible installation timelines. Better selection, fewer supply chain delays As the weather turns more extreme and everyone scrambles to get new heating or cooling systems, companies can run low on inventory. Fall can, thus, offer the widest selection of systems to choose from, since suppliers tend to restock right before the winter and can promise faster delivery times. You’re also less likely to be bogged down by logistical or supply chain issues unlike summer and winter where high demand can lead to shipping snags. Lower price and seasonal discounts For traditional HVAC systems, summer’s lower demand for heating equipment can mean better deals. But since heat pumps provide both heating and cooling, interest in heat pumps spikes multiple times a year. That’s why the best time to replace your air conditioner or furnace is during temperate seasons like fall. During these off-peak months, manufacturers and contractors often roll out discounts, rebates, and financing offers to keep sales steady, so you can lower your HVAC cost. Some financing plans even include low- or no-interest options, making high-quality systems more affordable. Fall also overlaps with several major sales events—Labour Day, Back-to-School, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—when many HVAC companies roll out special promotions. By upgrading in the fall, you can take advantage of these sales instead of waiting for a breakdown and paying a premium during peak demand in winter. New inventory and clearance sales HVAC manufacturers often release new models right before winter, which means companies look to clear out older stock before the cold strikes. This can result in discounts and clearance pricing on last year’s models. If you’re not concerned about having the latest version, you can save significantly by opting for slightly older inventory. If you’re set on having the latest and greatest, popular models can still be back-ordered, with wait times stretching six to eight weeks. Planning ahead helps you lock in savings while ensuring you have your new system ready before extreme weather sets in. Time to research and compare No good decision is made in haste, and the decision to buy a brand new HVAC system is one that can have a huge impact on your pocket and your home comfort. Because both heating and cooling requirements are lower in the fall and you don’t have to rush to get your system in place, you have the luxury of time to do extensive research; compare various models, features, and ratings; gather quotes; assess HVAC system replacement costs; and make an informed decision about what truly fits your home and budget. Why timely replacement matters Modern systems are significantly more energy efficient than older models, resulting in reduced energy consumption and lower monthly bills. Replacing aging equipment with a new HVAC system often means you’ll start enjoying your utility bill savings right away. Newer systems will also save you repair and maintenance costs - and you won’t have to worry about your furnace failing on the coldest day of the year. With consistent, even temperatures and improved indoor air quality from a new HVAC system like a heat pump, you can look forward to greater comfort and peace of mind. Best way to maintain your current HVAC system If you're still debating whether or not to invest in a new system, here are some fall HVAC maintenance tips to maintain your current HVAC system and maximize its efficiency as much as possible: Change or clean your air filters regularly, every 1–3 months. Keep vents and ducts clean to prevent dust, pet hair, and debris from restricting airflow. Check your home’s insulation and seal any leaks around windows, doors, and ductwork, paying special attention to your attic and basement. Book regular inspections to catch small issues before they become costly breakdowns. Remember, regular maintenance can help delay the need to repair or replace your HVAC system. The bottom line Waiting until the eleventh hour to get a new heat pump or furnace often means longer wait times, back-ordered equipment, and rushed installations. The best way to approach when to replace an HVAC system is then to plan ahead and schedule it during slower months, like fall. You’ll have more flexibility to compare models and HVAC system replacement costs, secure the system that’s right for your home, and lock in a convenient installation date before the weather turns inclement. You also won’t waste money running outdated equipment when temperatures are at their extremes and will get an upgrade efficiently, affordably, and with peace of mind. Ready for an upgrade? Fall is the perfect time to consider a heat pump for your space heating and cooling needs. 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